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The Numbers Game: Why Everything You Know About Soccer Is Wrong
Moneyball meets Freakonomics in this myth-busting guide to understanding—and winning—the most popular sport on the planet
Innovation is coming to soccer, and at the center of it all are the numbers—a way of thinking about the game that ignores the obvious in favor of how things actually are. In The Numbers Game, Chris Anderson, a former professional goalkeeper turned soccer statistics guru, teams up with behavioral analyst David Sally to uncover the numbers that really matter when it comes to predicting a winner. Investigating basic but profound questions—How valuable are corners? Which goal matters most? Is possession really nine-tenths of the law? How should a player’s value be judged?—they deliver an incisive, revolutionary new way of watching and understanding soccer.
Innovation is coming to soccer, and at the center of it all are the numbers—a way of thinking about the game that ignores the obvious in favor of how things actually are. In The Numbers Game, Chris Anderson, a former professional goalkeeper turned soccer statistics guru, teams up with behavioral analyst David Sally to uncover the numbers that really matter when it comes to predicting a winner. Investigating basic but profound questions—How valuable are corners? Which goal matters most? Is possession really nine-tenths of the law? How should a player’s value be judged?—they deliver an incisive, revolutionary new way of watching and understanding soccer.
392 pages, Paperback
First published May 30, 2013
About the author
Chris Anderson
1 book11 followersLibrarian note: There is more than one author with this name in the Goodreads database.
A pioneer of soccer analytics, Chris Anderson is the author of “The Numbers Game: Why Everything You Know About Soccer Is Wrong“, and Managing Partner of Anderson Sally LLC. A sought-after soccer industry advisor, Chris’s work focuses on using rigorous and appropriate analysis to acquire, manage, and build and sustain clubs in the context of global competition for talent and success. Before co-founding Anderson Sally, Chris was a professor at Cornell University; he has held visiting appointments at Oxford, Stanford, and the LSE, and has s taught management strategy at Cornell’s Johnson School of Management and Northwestern University’s Kellogg School of Management. Anderson has been a frequent commentator on the use of analytics in football and Big Data in high performing organizations.
At 17, Chris Anderson found himself playing in goal for a fourth division club in West Germany; today, he's a professor in the Ivy League at Cornell University in Ithaca, New York. An award winning social scientist and football analytics pioneer, Anderson consults with leading clubs about how best to play the numbers game.
A pioneer of soccer analytics, Chris Anderson is the author of “The Numbers Game: Why Everything You Know About Soccer Is Wrong“, and Managing Partner of Anderson Sally LLC. A sought-after soccer industry advisor, Chris’s work focuses on using rigorous and appropriate analysis to acquire, manage, and build and sustain clubs in the context of global competition for talent and success. Before co-founding Anderson Sally, Chris was a professor at Cornell University; he has held visiting appointments at Oxford, Stanford, and the LSE, and has s taught management strategy at Cornell’s Johnson School of Management and Northwestern University’s Kellogg School of Management. Anderson has been a frequent commentator on the use of analytics in football and Big Data in high performing organizations.
At 17, Chris Anderson found himself playing in goal for a fourth division club in West Germany; today, he's a professor in the Ivy League at Cornell University in Ithaca, New York. An award winning social scientist and football analytics pioneer, Anderson consults with leading clubs about how best to play the numbers game.
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Displaying 1 - 30 of 242 reviews
October 12, 2013
It tries too hard. The data collected are, by themselves, interesting enough, no need to tamper or primp them. However, the authors had to spice them up to artificially make the findings more impressive.
Three exemples come up: 1) They used Spiegelhalter's study to state that chance, alone, is responsible for roughly 50% of a team's successs. The original researcher himself had concluded that only 26% of accomplishment was due to pure randomness. The trick? "Lying with statistics". Spiegelhalter measured variance, which is technically more appropriate. Sally, on the other hand, used standard deviation, as to inflate the number.
2) To support, once again, their thesis that skills account for only 50% of success, Sally and Anderson pointed out that good teams only win 50% of matches (comparing it to a flip of coins). Well, they could have very well pointed that bad teams percentage win is about 25% (the rest is composed of draws). It's not a flip of a coin since the good ones are twice as likely to win.
3) Recalling Martin Lames' theory that 44.4% of goals originated from luck. What's wrong with Lames's study? Nothing. However, they contradicted their own motto stated on the preface: information should be used to find the truth, and not confirm one's own bias. Why not recall studies that doesn't corroborate their assumptions?
Anyway, I recommend everyone to read "How to Lie with Statistics" before getting on The Numbers Game.
Three exemples come up: 1) They used Spiegelhalter's study to state that chance, alone, is responsible for roughly 50% of a team's successs. The original researcher himself had concluded that only 26% of accomplishment was due to pure randomness. The trick? "Lying with statistics". Spiegelhalter measured variance, which is technically more appropriate. Sally, on the other hand, used standard deviation, as to inflate the number.
2) To support, once again, their thesis that skills account for only 50% of success, Sally and Anderson pointed out that good teams only win 50% of matches (comparing it to a flip of coins). Well, they could have very well pointed that bad teams percentage win is about 25% (the rest is composed of draws). It's not a flip of a coin since the good ones are twice as likely to win.
3) Recalling Martin Lames' theory that 44.4% of goals originated from luck. What's wrong with Lames's study? Nothing. However, they contradicted their own motto stated on the preface: information should be used to find the truth, and not confirm one's own bias. Why not recall studies that doesn't corroborate their assumptions?
Anyway, I recommend everyone to read "How to Lie with Statistics" before getting on The Numbers Game.
June 28, 2014
Meh.
I had such high hopes for this book, but somehow it didn't quite deliver. The basic premise is fascinating and undoubtedly correct - the use of statistical analysis is fundamental to success at the highest levels of football.
But the execution is unfortunately quite turgid. We get page after page of argument which alternates between repetition and incomplete analysis. In one second the authors are telling you the same point over and over again. In the next breath they are making a deductive leap that I simply could not follow.
There are nuggets in the book - although not many that you probably don't know already. But does it live up to the hype of "why everything you know about "soccer" is wrong"? No, I'm afraid it doesn't.
Great premise, slick marketing, slightly dull book. Shame.
I had such high hopes for this book, but somehow it didn't quite deliver. The basic premise is fascinating and undoubtedly correct - the use of statistical analysis is fundamental to success at the highest levels of football.
But the execution is unfortunately quite turgid. We get page after page of argument which alternates between repetition and incomplete analysis. In one second the authors are telling you the same point over and over again. In the next breath they are making a deductive leap that I simply could not follow.
There are nuggets in the book - although not many that you probably don't know already. But does it live up to the hype of "why everything you know about "soccer" is wrong"? No, I'm afraid it doesn't.
Great premise, slick marketing, slightly dull book. Shame.
October 21, 2018
Chris and David are pioneers of 'football analytics'. Former goalkeeper and baseball pitcher respectively before turning into football statistics gurus.
Their book is for the "Big Data" folks, unleashing the "freakonomics" within them. A thought-provoking book that will completely change your understanding of the game, challenge your assumptions and, most importantly, ignite your passion towards the most popular game in the world.
Shall corners be taken short? Are teams as good as their worst players? Does changing manager affect anything after all? Is the game 50% luck? Is ball possession something valuable? What is the guerrilla style of playing? Why Stoke City were doing good for a decade with seemingly slow players? How many scouters do Udinese have? What is the futuristic formation that will put the 4-4-2 and 4-3-3 into the bin for good? How does Xabi Alonso view tacking? What is the Maldini Principle? Does a dog that don't bark make any sense?
Questions will not end. Because when they do end in the book, you will continue probing new ones yourself.
Disclaimer: You will start watching football in a different way. Unsure if this is a good or bad thing!
Their book is for the "Big Data" folks, unleashing the "freakonomics" within them. A thought-provoking book that will completely change your understanding of the game, challenge your assumptions and, most importantly, ignite your passion towards the most popular game in the world.
Shall corners be taken short? Are teams as good as their worst players? Does changing manager affect anything after all? Is the game 50% luck? Is ball possession something valuable? What is the guerrilla style of playing? Why Stoke City were doing good for a decade with seemingly slow players? How many scouters do Udinese have? What is the futuristic formation that will put the 4-4-2 and 4-3-3 into the bin for good? How does Xabi Alonso view tacking? What is the Maldini Principle? Does a dog that don't bark make any sense?
Questions will not end. Because when they do end in the book, you will continue probing new ones yourself.
Disclaimer: You will start watching football in a different way. Unsure if this is a good or bad thing!
January 19, 2014
Some interesting ideas in here, and a big reminder of how much stats I have forgotten, but some parts I enjoyed more than others.
Some of the most interesting pieces of thinking (for example that the level of the worst player in a team has more impact than the average ability, or the differences between turnovers and possessions) felt under-pursued - I'd like to have seen where they end up and the impact made more clear.
Some other pieces felt to me too much like declaring relationships causal rather than correlated. Does changing the timing of substitutions improve performance or is there something underlying the situation that actually drives the situation?
Whether this is valid criticism of the stats or not not sure I'm qualified to answer any more, but certainly this book doesn't explain itself as well as say Freakonomics. That said, it's interesting that a lot of the Goodreads reviews ask for less interpretation and less description! This must be the real statisticians!
Some of the most interesting pieces of thinking (for example that the level of the worst player in a team has more impact than the average ability, or the differences between turnovers and possessions) felt under-pursued - I'd like to have seen where they end up and the impact made more clear.
Some other pieces felt to me too much like declaring relationships causal rather than correlated. Does changing the timing of substitutions improve performance or is there something underlying the situation that actually drives the situation?
Whether this is valid criticism of the stats or not not sure I'm qualified to answer any more, but certainly this book doesn't explain itself as well as say Freakonomics. That said, it's interesting that a lot of the Goodreads reviews ask for less interpretation and less description! This must be the real statisticians!
February 4, 2018
Quite a few misleading interpretations of statistics provided.
- Soccer was compared to basketball, baseball, american football and handball, and that only favourites have "only" slightly over 50% chance of winning.
- but in all the other sports mentioned, there are no draws!
- Flipping this around, with odds of drawing around 25%, it means odds of favourites winning are twice that of odds of underdogs winning. That's significant.
- Comparing this to coin flipping is erroneous. Coin flipping has only 2 outcomes, soccer match 3 (unless in the case of cup matches).
- Authors also stated that some goals scored mean less compared to other goals, but what about goal difference? Its only true if we look at each match individually, and that matters for cup games, but not so in the league.
- Again, misleading interpretation. Authors quote that 51% of teams who score the most go on to win the league. This is again not a coin flip. In fact, in a league of 20 teams, this makes the highest scoring team the favourites by far .
- On managers: authors postulate that less goalies and defenders become managers because of less appreciation for defending. But doesn't this ignore the fact that there are less goalies and defenders plying their trades professionally to start with?
-long ball ratio to shots: teams that play more long balls and fewer shots tend to finish lower on the table. But is this a result rather than a cause? Perhaps weaker teams play long balls and shoot less BECAUSE they cant keep possession, rather than as a deliberate strategy?
- Soccer was compared to basketball, baseball, american football and handball, and that only favourites have "only" slightly over 50% chance of winning.
- but in all the other sports mentioned, there are no draws!
- Flipping this around, with odds of drawing around 25%, it means odds of favourites winning are twice that of odds of underdogs winning. That's significant.
- Comparing this to coin flipping is erroneous. Coin flipping has only 2 outcomes, soccer match 3 (unless in the case of cup matches).
- Authors also stated that some goals scored mean less compared to other goals, but what about goal difference? Its only true if we look at each match individually, and that matters for cup games, but not so in the league.
- Again, misleading interpretation. Authors quote that 51% of teams who score the most go on to win the league. This is again not a coin flip. In fact, in a league of 20 teams, this makes the highest scoring team the favourites by far .
- On managers: authors postulate that less goalies and defenders become managers because of less appreciation for defending. But doesn't this ignore the fact that there are less goalies and defenders plying their trades professionally to start with?
-long ball ratio to shots: teams that play more long balls and fewer shots tend to finish lower on the table. But is this a result rather than a cause? Perhaps weaker teams play long balls and shoot less BECAUSE they cant keep possession, rather than as a deliberate strategy?
November 8, 2016
I get obsessed about things, I find something I like and delve face first into it till I am full of it, or tire of it or run out of things to know. I never liked sports eventhough I come from a family of sports lovers. A few years ago I jumped off into hockey and last year I fell in love with the beautiful game.
(Yes, that's alot of pointless exposition, but there is a purpose sorta)
Being a book whore, and having a new subject to pore over, I found several books on my new subject. The Numbers Game, being a study on a sport I was just learning and numbers (which I suck at)..common sense says I shouldn't enjoy this, But I did.
This book shows me in no uncertain terms why I enjoy this sport as a new fan. It is truly a beautiful game, there is a magic in the stats and a "beauty" in the skill and the players.
If you are a stat head, or just want to understand a great sport better, this is for you.
(Yes, that's alot of pointless exposition, but there is a purpose sorta)
Being a book whore, and having a new subject to pore over, I found several books on my new subject. The Numbers Game, being a study on a sport I was just learning and numbers (which I suck at)..common sense says I shouldn't enjoy this, But I did.
This book shows me in no uncertain terms why I enjoy this sport as a new fan. It is truly a beautiful game, there is a magic in the stats and a "beauty" in the skill and the players.
If you are a stat head, or just want to understand a great sport better, this is for you.
March 15, 2014
Soccer where 0 > 1 !! The 15% that was fascinating outweighed the 50% that was too complex and repetitious. 35% very strong. Since a book is (IMHO) a strong-link enterprise, this means this is a very good book.
January 3, 2020
One of those books that shower you with data and statistics, yet you are none the wiser having read it.
Moneyball is the book that all these kind of books aspire to be yet they fail to mention that once a team or an organization break a code of how a team can be operated, game changing as it may be, once everyone knows about it, it seizes to be unique and just becomes the norm.
Sadly even the author himself admits that soccer still has a way to go to bring a game changing approach.
Moneyball is the book that all these kind of books aspire to be yet they fail to mention that once a team or an organization break a code of how a team can be operated, game changing as it may be, once everyone knows about it, it seizes to be unique and just becomes the norm.
Sadly even the author himself admits that soccer still has a way to go to bring a game changing approach.
September 17, 2023
A book full of interesting analyses, snippets of information and stats that will make any football fan go 'whoa, I didn't realise that!' At times, the book went into personal stories about how football analysts came into prominence which I didn't care for too much. The part I liked the most was - 'The Forecasts' which predicts (quite accurately as the book was published in 2013) many trends in the footballing world purely through data-led patterns. A nice read for anyone interested in football and also like their numbers and data.
March 6, 2022
کتاب خوبی بود برای اونایی که فوتبال رو عاشقانه دوست دارن. با خوندنش فهمیدم چقدر فوتبال مرموزه، چقدر جذابه و چقدر از ورزشهایی مثل بسکتبال و بیسبال و هاکی تصادفی تره. همین تصادفی بودن یکی از دلایلیه که درطرفدارترین ورزش جهانه.
این کتاب در اصل در شروع عصر دیتا در فوتبال نوشته شده یعنی حدود ۱۰ سال پیش. الان استفاده از دیتا توی فوتبال خیلی گسترش پیدا کرده و من حس میکنم این کتاب الان داره دستی به ریشای سفیدش میکشه و مغرورانه میگه: دیدید فرزندانم؟ همونی شد که من گفتم.
از متن:
Counterfactual thinking is hard because of the way people form causal explanations from events. As a general rule, when trying to explain an outcome we see in the world, people tend to think harder about things that happen than things that don't.
این کتاب در اصل در شروع عصر دیتا در فوتبال نوشته شده یعنی حدود ۱۰ سال پیش. الان استفاده از دیتا توی فوتبال خیلی گسترش پیدا کرده و من حس میکنم این کتاب الان داره دستی به ریشای سفیدش میکشه و مغرورانه میگه: دیدید فرزندانم؟ همونی شد که من گفتم.
از متن:
Counterfactual thinking is hard because of the way people form causal explanations from events. As a general rule, when trying to explain an outcome we see in the world, people tend to think harder about things that happen than things that don't.
February 8, 2017
The book is packed with interesting insights (some confirmatory, others counter-intuitive) backed by third party or the authors' own analysis.
Examples include: 3 point for a win encouraged long clearances and yellow cards not goals; a clear recognition that the beauty of football is the rareness and decisiveness of goals (and an excellent comparison to scores and chances of favourite winning in other sports); that key statistics (corners, shots, long passes, short passes, fouls) are identical across major leagues; corners only produce a goal every 45 or so corners; ; that possession and not losing it is important and that Stoke play a possession game, just one based on possessing the ball out of play; that in a game the weakest link is as important as the strongest player (especially as natural ability starts to come up against a barrier) but that over a squad and season having a range of abilities is optimal if the strongest players can inspire the weaker ones: having an ex player as a manager works where the player is of a better standard than the team he coaches; that sacking a manager produces an apparent upturn in results but that this is simply mean reversion and would be replicated by not sacking the manager; that an average player has possession of the ball for less than a minute.
However what is disappointing (at least in the early stages of the book) is that the authors are guilty of either incorrect or at the least sloppy characterisations of many of their findings.
Examples include: describing football as a game of 50/50 when that actually means 50 percent is luck and 50 percent skill (so more like 75/25); stating that the best team only wins a little over half the time, but ignoring the draws (at one stage they quote a finding from a very different study that the worse team wins 45 percent of the time as being the same thing); saying that 1 goal equates to 1 point on average means a goal "virtually guarantees a point. Similarly some of their recommendations are unrealistic – for example that teams should not allow a new manager to have any new players to as to produce a controlled experiment on their skill.
Interesting analysis of football – as well as reproducing lots of insights as above the book has a strong theme about the growth of data and analytics (interestingly its closing contention is that the next generation weaned on football simulations will think this is automatic – AVB being one manager who apparently learnt his skills this way).
Examples include: 3 point for a win encouraged long clearances and yellow cards not goals; a clear recognition that the beauty of football is the rareness and decisiveness of goals (and an excellent comparison to scores and chances of favourite winning in other sports); that key statistics (corners, shots, long passes, short passes, fouls) are identical across major leagues; corners only produce a goal every 45 or so corners; ; that possession and not losing it is important and that Stoke play a possession game, just one based on possessing the ball out of play; that in a game the weakest link is as important as the strongest player (especially as natural ability starts to come up against a barrier) but that over a squad and season having a range of abilities is optimal if the strongest players can inspire the weaker ones: having an ex player as a manager works where the player is of a better standard than the team he coaches; that sacking a manager produces an apparent upturn in results but that this is simply mean reversion and would be replicated by not sacking the manager; that an average player has possession of the ball for less than a minute.
However what is disappointing (at least in the early stages of the book) is that the authors are guilty of either incorrect or at the least sloppy characterisations of many of their findings.
Examples include: describing football as a game of 50/50 when that actually means 50 percent is luck and 50 percent skill (so more like 75/25); stating that the best team only wins a little over half the time, but ignoring the draws (at one stage they quote a finding from a very different study that the worse team wins 45 percent of the time as being the same thing); saying that 1 goal equates to 1 point on average means a goal "virtually guarantees a point. Similarly some of their recommendations are unrealistic – for example that teams should not allow a new manager to have any new players to as to produce a controlled experiment on their skill.
Interesting analysis of football – as well as reproducing lots of insights as above the book has a strong theme about the growth of data and analytics (interestingly its closing contention is that the next generation weaned on football simulations will think this is automatic – AVB being one manager who apparently learnt his skills this way).
May 24, 2021
Despite some interesting facts and statistics, the book falls short to its name. The authors try too hard to prove that some common beliefs in football are wrong, and often misplace causal relationships.
Nevertheless, I enjoyed particularly their discussion about Stoke and Rory Delap's throw ins and some of the forecasts about football analytics in the future, that already part have proven correct.
Nevertheless, I enjoyed particularly their discussion about Stoke and Rory Delap's throw ins and some of the forecasts about football analytics in the future, that already part have proven correct.
December 9, 2014
amazing book
December 26, 2019
Bringing data to the beautiful game! Loved it.
April 6, 2024
This book gives a good perspective of soccer from a statistical/economical view. While I think it can be a little reductive to boil soccer down to a handful of numbers, the authors still provide fresh analysis into what makes a team stronger or successful.
February 1, 2021
If you like to watch football, this one at least makes you watch it in a slightly different way. Well popularized book about a popular subject.
June 3, 2015
The Numbers Game is a book written about two things – numbers and sport. Data science is growing in importance within the sports arena. Whilst people have been studying the numbers for around a hundred years, no one has really known what the numbers mean, or how to get the best from them. Even today, we are learning, but what we have learned so far is presented very well in this book.
This book isn’t written with the head of sports analysis at Chelsea in mind. It is written with you, the fan, the critic, the better, the armchair manager in mind. By reading this book, you will see that football is full of nuances that you didn’t know existed! The truth is being uncovered and this is a great presentation of the truth so far.
Ever wondered why your accumulators don’t come in? Why did Manchester United win the Premiership with unnerving regularity? What is the winning formula for your favourite football team? The honest answer, as discovered within this book – Luck! By analysing statistical data available, Anderson and Sally provide insightful detailed information showing that your sure thing isn’t quite as sure as you might think!
The book is very well written, with all points being very easy to follow and sometimes quite humorous. Graphs are presented clearly throughout the book to highlight key points and make them easy to visualise. If you have an interest in sports betting, or simply enjoy "The Beautiful Game", you must read this book.
This book isn’t written with the head of sports analysis at Chelsea in mind. It is written with you, the fan, the critic, the better, the armchair manager in mind. By reading this book, you will see that football is full of nuances that you didn’t know existed! The truth is being uncovered and this is a great presentation of the truth so far.
Ever wondered why your accumulators don’t come in? Why did Manchester United win the Premiership with unnerving regularity? What is the winning formula for your favourite football team? The honest answer, as discovered within this book – Luck! By analysing statistical data available, Anderson and Sally provide insightful detailed information showing that your sure thing isn’t quite as sure as you might think!
The book is very well written, with all points being very easy to follow and sometimes quite humorous. Graphs are presented clearly throughout the book to highlight key points and make them easy to visualise. If you have an interest in sports betting, or simply enjoy "The Beautiful Game", you must read this book.
February 6, 2017
This was a very interesting book - combining football and mathematics (two of my favourite beautiful things!) in order to tease out some of the aspects of the game which could be enhanced, 'Moneyball style' by modern analytical statistical techniques.
There's a lot of content, and the book will certainly stand up to repeated re-readings. If I had one criticism, however, it would probably be that the subjects chosen for data analysis felt a little less novel than in other books of a similar ilk ('Moneyball', 'Why England Lose' and some other more sociological economics type ones I've also read) and hence the conclusions drawn were less quirky and less surprising. I did also find myself slightly itching to shout "correlation is not causation!" at various points, when page after page claimed X caused Y (as opposed to, as I suspect, is just correlated with it). In addition, the massive role of luck and wealth in the game made me wonder just how big a difference analytics could make to the small amount of 'readily influencable' stuff left.
There's a lot of content, and the book will certainly stand up to repeated re-readings. If I had one criticism, however, it would probably be that the subjects chosen for data analysis felt a little less novel than in other books of a similar ilk ('Moneyball', 'Why England Lose' and some other more sociological economics type ones I've also read) and hence the conclusions drawn were less quirky and less surprising. I did also find myself slightly itching to shout "correlation is not causation!" at various points, when page after page claimed X caused Y (as opposed to, as I suspect, is just correlated with it). In addition, the massive role of luck and wealth in the game made me wonder just how big a difference analytics could make to the small amount of 'readily influencable' stuff left.
November 7, 2021
Football from the lens of statistics
You know that moneyball approach in baseball that has since copied elsewhere after the success story of Oakland A? This book is the story about its implementation in football (soccer).
The book highlights the fascinating world of data-analytics that are already rampant in baseball, basketball, and American football, but often previously overlooked in football. Using heavy sets of data, the book provides some interesting statistical angles that we will definitely miss if not pointed out, angles that could change the way we sees football and perhaps more importantly could change the way managers and players approach the game.
Now, this is an old(ish) book, published in 2013 during a time when data-analytics was still new in football, with the arguments made in the book are already a little outdated today. But the good news is, in hindsight we can immediately see which prediction came true or which arguments render to nothing.
For instance, by the time the book was published, Liverpool - whose new owner is none other than John Henry whom successfully applied the moneyball approach on his baseball franchise the Boston Red Sox - had just started implementing the data-analytics approach. Liverpool began the approach through the trial and error era of Brendan Rogers, and carried forward into great heights by Jurgen Klopp in his throphy-laden and records breaking reign. A success story. But the unsuccessful side of the aproach also saw Roberto Martinez did not quite make it in implementing it in Everton, while another hero in the book, Stoke City, eventually got relegated to the Championship.
Moreover, the book provides a glimpse of what data analytics can do to assist decision makings: Why Chelsea should have bought Darren Bent instead of Fernando Torres in January 2011, why did Alex Ferguson really sold Jaap Stam to Lazio, how catenaccio was designed to protect the team’s weak links, why Andre Villas-Boas failed at Chelsea, why according to Xabi Alonso tackling happens when something goes wrong and not right (and sense of positioning is more important), and what Tony Pulis did with Stoke City and Sam Allardyce did with Bolton: to use long-ball style of play to help maximize their resources and compensate what they lack (they will never be the possession-controlling type with those sets of players).
The book also tells several never-been-told stories, such as English football’s true innovator: Jimmy Hill. He was the person whom in the 1950s campaigned to scrap the Football League’s maximum wage (20 pounds a week) that led to the slow inflation of salaries until today’s millions. He was also the one who commissioned England’s first all-seater stadium, and the 3-point rule (which would be followed by FIFA as late as 1995 where it commands for all its constituent leagues award 3 points for victory).
Furthermore, every now and then the book told few stories in a slight deviation away from football, such as the amazing story of Major League Baseball’s Tampa Bay Rays whose majority owner, president, and head of operations had all been Wall Street guys, and they run the club using sports analytics looking for “positive arbitrage” possibilities. With only 2% edge they could brought the team to the play-offs in 4 of the last 6 years even though their total wage bill was the 4th lowest in the league, way down on the sums paid out by New York Yankees or the Boston Red Sox. In football terms, it is as if Sunderland is reaching the Champions League knockout stages 3 times in 5 years.
And of course, the book provides us with plenty of tales from the footballing archive. Such as the story of Arrigo Sacchi in AC Milan, where in trying to prove his theory (that 5 organised players would beat 10 disorganised ones), in training he took 5 organised defensive players (Giovanni Galli in goal, Tassotti, Maldini, Costacurta and Baresi), and clash them against ten players (Gullit, van Basten, Rijkaard, Virdis, Evani, Ancelotti, Colombo, Donadoni, Lantignotti and Mannari). “They had fifteen minutes to score against my five players”, said Sacchi, “the only rule was that if we won possession or they lost the ball, they had to start over from ten meters inside their own half. I did this all the time and they never scored. Not once.”
And when it comes to longevity, statistically speaking, the greatest manager according to this book is not Jose Mourinho or Alex Ferguson, it’s not Marcello Lippi, Vincente del Bosque, Fabio Capello, Marcelo Bielsa, Arsene Wenger, or Pep Guardiola. But Jimmy Davies. Who? Exactly. That’s moneyball for you.
Football is passion, football is tactical prowness meets luck. It’s chaotic and often messy. It’s about those magical moments that were created time after time that does not make sense - Roberto Carlos’ goal for Brazil against France in Tournoi de France, the two goals by Man Utd in stoppage time 1999 that won them the Champions League, that Roberto Baggio penalty miss in 1994 World Cup final after brilliant previous performances, that Aguero goal at the very last minute of 2011-2012 season - moments that from statistical point of view should not happen. And then of course there’s the mother of all outliers, Leicester City who won the Premier League by beating a 5000/1 odds in 2014-2015 season.
But for everything else, football is measurable. It is a set of habits and repetitive moves that form a predictable pattern, pattern that can be analysed in great depths using statistics. It gives that extra edge in an increasingly tight matches, where even throw ins, or when to best introduce a substitute (minutes 58, 73, and 79), or where the goalkeeper should stand in a penalty shoot, or the choice between in-swinging or out-swinging corner kick can make a slim margin of difference on the outcome of the game.
And while we already know that today the usage of data-analytics are spreading rapidly within football, this book shows us why and how. This is why this book is sublime.
You know that moneyball approach in baseball that has since copied elsewhere after the success story of Oakland A? This book is the story about its implementation in football (soccer).
The book highlights the fascinating world of data-analytics that are already rampant in baseball, basketball, and American football, but often previously overlooked in football. Using heavy sets of data, the book provides some interesting statistical angles that we will definitely miss if not pointed out, angles that could change the way we sees football and perhaps more importantly could change the way managers and players approach the game.
Now, this is an old(ish) book, published in 2013 during a time when data-analytics was still new in football, with the arguments made in the book are already a little outdated today. But the good news is, in hindsight we can immediately see which prediction came true or which arguments render to nothing.
For instance, by the time the book was published, Liverpool - whose new owner is none other than John Henry whom successfully applied the moneyball approach on his baseball franchise the Boston Red Sox - had just started implementing the data-analytics approach. Liverpool began the approach through the trial and error era of Brendan Rogers, and carried forward into great heights by Jurgen Klopp in his throphy-laden and records breaking reign. A success story. But the unsuccessful side of the aproach also saw Roberto Martinez did not quite make it in implementing it in Everton, while another hero in the book, Stoke City, eventually got relegated to the Championship.
Moreover, the book provides a glimpse of what data analytics can do to assist decision makings: Why Chelsea should have bought Darren Bent instead of Fernando Torres in January 2011, why did Alex Ferguson really sold Jaap Stam to Lazio, how catenaccio was designed to protect the team’s weak links, why Andre Villas-Boas failed at Chelsea, why according to Xabi Alonso tackling happens when something goes wrong and not right (and sense of positioning is more important), and what Tony Pulis did with Stoke City and Sam Allardyce did with Bolton: to use long-ball style of play to help maximize their resources and compensate what they lack (they will never be the possession-controlling type with those sets of players).
The book also tells several never-been-told stories, such as English football’s true innovator: Jimmy Hill. He was the person whom in the 1950s campaigned to scrap the Football League’s maximum wage (20 pounds a week) that led to the slow inflation of salaries until today’s millions. He was also the one who commissioned England’s first all-seater stadium, and the 3-point rule (which would be followed by FIFA as late as 1995 where it commands for all its constituent leagues award 3 points for victory).
Furthermore, every now and then the book told few stories in a slight deviation away from football, such as the amazing story of Major League Baseball’s Tampa Bay Rays whose majority owner, president, and head of operations had all been Wall Street guys, and they run the club using sports analytics looking for “positive arbitrage” possibilities. With only 2% edge they could brought the team to the play-offs in 4 of the last 6 years even though their total wage bill was the 4th lowest in the league, way down on the sums paid out by New York Yankees or the Boston Red Sox. In football terms, it is as if Sunderland is reaching the Champions League knockout stages 3 times in 5 years.
And of course, the book provides us with plenty of tales from the footballing archive. Such as the story of Arrigo Sacchi in AC Milan, where in trying to prove his theory (that 5 organised players would beat 10 disorganised ones), in training he took 5 organised defensive players (Giovanni Galli in goal, Tassotti, Maldini, Costacurta and Baresi), and clash them against ten players (Gullit, van Basten, Rijkaard, Virdis, Evani, Ancelotti, Colombo, Donadoni, Lantignotti and Mannari). “They had fifteen minutes to score against my five players”, said Sacchi, “the only rule was that if we won possession or they lost the ball, they had to start over from ten meters inside their own half. I did this all the time and they never scored. Not once.”
And when it comes to longevity, statistically speaking, the greatest manager according to this book is not Jose Mourinho or Alex Ferguson, it’s not Marcello Lippi, Vincente del Bosque, Fabio Capello, Marcelo Bielsa, Arsene Wenger, or Pep Guardiola. But Jimmy Davies. Who? Exactly. That’s moneyball for you.
Football is passion, football is tactical prowness meets luck. It’s chaotic and often messy. It’s about those magical moments that were created time after time that does not make sense - Roberto Carlos’ goal for Brazil against France in Tournoi de France, the two goals by Man Utd in stoppage time 1999 that won them the Champions League, that Roberto Baggio penalty miss in 1994 World Cup final after brilliant previous performances, that Aguero goal at the very last minute of 2011-2012 season - moments that from statistical point of view should not happen. And then of course there’s the mother of all outliers, Leicester City who won the Premier League by beating a 5000/1 odds in 2014-2015 season.
But for everything else, football is measurable. It is a set of habits and repetitive moves that form a predictable pattern, pattern that can be analysed in great depths using statistics. It gives that extra edge in an increasingly tight matches, where even throw ins, or when to best introduce a substitute (minutes 58, 73, and 79), or where the goalkeeper should stand in a penalty shoot, or the choice between in-swinging or out-swinging corner kick can make a slim margin of difference on the outcome of the game.
And while we already know that today the usage of data-analytics are spreading rapidly within football, this book shows us why and how. This is why this book is sublime.
August 18, 2013
The Numbers Game tries very hard to be the Moneyball of football (i.e. soccer). And it comes pretty close except that Moneyball was built around the story of a single team. The Numbers Game presents a bunch of numbers and why what you thought about football performance might not actually be true. The authors also make a case for the game being at a tipping point, as a generation of managers like Ferguson and Wenger retire, while younger numbers-friendly managers like Moyes and Martinez take over bigger teams. They're probably right. But all predictions are just predictions.
Did the book change he way I watched games? Well the season started yesterday and I can confirm that my heart was still my guide (C'mon Everton!). But it was a fun read nonetheless.
Follow me on Twitter: @Dr_A_Taubman
Did the book change he way I watched games? Well the season started yesterday and I can confirm that my heart was still my guide (C'mon Everton!). But it was a fun read nonetheless.
Follow me on Twitter: @Dr_A_Taubman
November 13, 2021
Um livro que peca pelo romantismo.
Levanta questões muito importantes, abre caminho para discussões fundamentais. Mas com algumas argumentações fracas e manipuladoras. Precisa ser lido mais criticamente que outras leituras. O leitor não pode aceitar toda e qualquer linha do texto como verdade fundamental, apesar do livro às vezes tentar te manipular com a objetividade dos números. É apenas um aperitivo pra uma nova visão do futebol.
Não pode ser nem o primeiro nem o último livro sobre estatísticas que alguém leia. Sendo o primeiro, pode pegar um leitor muito maleável. Sendo o último, pode fincar algumas questões frágeis e rasas, que precisam de mais pesquisas e fontes para formar uma opinião concreta.
Em alguns momentos, tenta quebrar a objetividade do assunto com "tiradas" leves. Às vezes funciona, relaxa o leitor de uma leitura de muitos números e dados. Às vezes, não.
Levanta questões muito importantes, abre caminho para discussões fundamentais. Mas com algumas argumentações fracas e manipuladoras. Precisa ser lido mais criticamente que outras leituras. O leitor não pode aceitar toda e qualquer linha do texto como verdade fundamental, apesar do livro às vezes tentar te manipular com a objetividade dos números. É apenas um aperitivo pra uma nova visão do futebol.
Não pode ser nem o primeiro nem o último livro sobre estatísticas que alguém leia. Sendo o primeiro, pode pegar um leitor muito maleável. Sendo o último, pode fincar algumas questões frágeis e rasas, que precisam de mais pesquisas e fontes para formar uma opinião concreta.
Em alguns momentos, tenta quebrar a objetividade do assunto com "tiradas" leves. Às vezes funciona, relaxa o leitor de uma leitura de muitos números e dados. Às vezes, não.
July 17, 2014
"The Numbers Game" by Chris Anderson & David Sally has quite a few insightful observations & interesting theories about football (0>1 or the 58>73>79 substitution rule, to name a couple of them that spring to mind) but mostly gives the impression of being a handbook for propagating the concept of 'Moneyball' into the workings of the Beautiful Game as well.
Nevertheless, this book should appeal to aficianados of football statistics & analytics, akin to the kind of insight provided by Simon Kuper & Stefan Szymanski's "Soccernomics". Recommended.
Nevertheless, this book should appeal to aficianados of football statistics & analytics, akin to the kind of insight provided by Simon Kuper & Stefan Szymanski's "Soccernomics". Recommended.
Read
October 9, 2013Good read- I would have liked links to some of the literature, particularly journal articles with statistics...had Sally's father as a math professor in college.
December 6, 2022
Book: The Numbers Game
p40
"There are two routes to success in football, we have found. One is being good. The other is being lucky. You need both to win a championship. But you only need one to win a game. The correspondent from Die Ziet was right: the history of football is a record accidents that follow Cruff’s dictum. Toeval is logisch"
Toeval (chance/coincidence) is logisch (logical/consequent), as to mean in any seemingly random events, there’s an underlying pattern. Less pretentiously: football is still highly predictable despite it being random.
p82
Authors refer the diffusion of football overtime to the today’s various car brands that are not so unique among them in both economic and manufacturing terms. The ‘power and wealth’ of a select few clubs, if anything, improves the game of the puny ones at a rate deserving of respect. Good returns diminish and although it’s not so visible of an effect that you can finally see teams other than Barca, Real or Bayern reaching finals yet, the Premier League of today (and the last 5 years) just shows. All due to the bridging of skill and management gaps among the clubs that becoming increasingly cross-regional.
p90 - 128
“The differences between nations are cosmetic, shallow. The game is the same across the world’s elite football leagues. If it was not for the shirts, you would not be able to tell them apart”
FOOTBALL COMPASS
By Luis Menotti's treatment, whereas left-wing football sustains football creativity, its right-wing counterpart is fearful football only obsessed with results. Right-managers see their players as assembly of robots with 2 fundamental build-up: 'to obey and function'. It only suggests suffering and that applies for their unlucky fans.
While the modern game is about balance, Menotti doesnt mix different forces together. A gameplay can be mainly defined by 2 modes--light and dark. Assault and defense.
‘Ganar, gustar, golear’as the general motto is defined in Argentinian football scene.
But is it that much easier to score, or to not concede? The leading team’s scoreline being kept at 1-0 (1 less than 2) is them still scoring. An ongoing kind of scoring, But it’s absent. .
There’s a bias in what is present and ignoring what absent. For offense, the goal is the best outcome. But what of defense? Not conceding. The limited praise the defensive aspects of football usually get may be understood by the sports psychologist Gilovich’s way of showing this with 2 boxes. We are to find an O in a bunch of Q’s from one box, and vice versa. The first challenge will prove much more difficult in locating an O, which is just a Q in the absence of a line stuck to it, than locating a Q from the second.
Hence scoring is a present form of dominating; not conceding, an absent one. Since nothing else indicates the fan otherwise except for when the ugliest set of events at any progression of the game gone wrong one time is reminisced.
- - -
p132
All that usually comes into making an attack ‘are easily spotted, coded and counted’. Where and how the ball is being led are easy for us to track. There’s continuity in what either ends up as a either pathetic attempt or sublime conclusion. Tackles, blocks and duels, ‘have the feel of one-offs, preventive actions’ than passes, shots, and goals are. How do you begin to spot excellent marking of Klopp’s (as the manager himself described of his style once) ‘metal football’? The dispossessed’s efforts should be just about as collective as the attacking team, except the ball is there to guide us through the latter’s decisions.
Defenders at best are respected. Goals, for their rarity, relished for entirety. One unfair consequence of this is the general unlikelihood of goalkeepers and defenders coaching ‘the world’s top clubs,’ as the authors write,
‘Simply because defence is neither well understood nor highly valued’
...'The game is schizophrenic in that its as much about not losing as it is but pretends otherwise.'
To me its almost apparent that the set of actions on the one with the ball is much higher than the nearest other without. If we suppose that this breadth of freedom is really what permits creativity, then the rather dull treatment on defence including other ideas of 'securing' something stands as no surprise. The other side is where artistry is--or at least easily seen.
From baseball statistican Bill James:
'Defence is inherently harder to measure. And this is true in any sport. In any sports, the defensive statistics are more primitive than the offensive statistics. It's not just sports. It's true in life. It would be true in warfare and true in love.'
BEYOND THE YIN AND THE YANG
The number of passes goes hand in hand with successful passes. Plotting every teams passes vs pass completion per game for all games throughout the season, the correlation should be obvious--volume has everything to do with skill. So we’ll give that one to being selfish with the ball.
Is a team then to set out on dominating the open play at the opponents’ territory, or to do same except relying on open plays? Here’s a well-it-depends:
Almost all goals are from open plays. Frequency of how these goals come about holds a different meaning from the actual odds dictated by remarkably different situations: penalties, for one, grant 65% more chances of scoring than a shot from an open play.
It’s less of trivial answer when you ask why, despite almost twice the efficiency shorter moves (characteristic to long-ball games) have over longer ones (a goal in every 9 shots vs 15), does the possession-based team prevail.
Clue: More opportunities, less efficiency--and vice versa.
Answer: Shots -- its higher volume yields better odds of scoring; and it is the longer passing sequences that ultimately provide the most output in the very shots on goal. Pit two teams of the same style--direct or possessive--expect the most productive in shots to come away victorious.
p214
Promising runs favour team chemistry (sub-system) over individual skills (elements). A season is a confluence of events that largely accounts for the unpredictable--player injuries, superstar egos, crowd behaviour, weather, 40-yard stunners, 90th minute goals, impossible saves. Motivation runs out. Form fluctuates. Overcoming these contingencies goes beyond acknowledging how great of an impact they have on the team keeping itself afloat: talent pool. Almost a different kind of investment than one-off star purchases. It is the breadth of quality players at the right manager’s disposal that isnt concentrated to only few positions but that which ticks off every one of them--Forwards, Defenders, Midfielders in between. Goalkeepers!
Through Lobanovskyi, the game is of two subsystems overcoming each other for an outcome that favors the fewest flaws and best integration. freeing an eager side from bad returns requires measures be put in place for the chain of 'coalition' where strength is no longer binding.
‘...errors multiply rather than add up’
Therefore it’s the gap between the team’s weakest positions versus its better majority that make triumph seem more grueling.
TEDDY BEARS AND THEIR PLAYERS: WHEN TO SUB ONE OFF THE PITCH???
p239
Managers tend to wait for one moment where his already under-performing player fails terribly before substituting him. Whats happening is the delay due to the disconnect of observation and the manager’s prior evaluation of his player from before the kickoff. By the time the manager calls it out, the authors say it’s usually too late--basing it on the < 58 < 73 < 79 substitution rule (made out to be universally principal by the authors) to reduce errors and alleviate late-game lethargy. This bias could be forgivable, as the players are quite the self-trained ‘experts’ themselves at fooling their managers.
p253
Football views leadership of the modern manager as a soft teddy bear, i.e impactless. It really just means a closing gap between players and managers in their influence over the club and path to celebrity status that current times allow.
p262
Evaluating their worth two pages further, managers were compared to FT Global 500 CEO’s. They write:
‘The manager is the de facto organizational leader: the man who makes the decisions that affect product, the guy who hires and fires, and who is the public face of the club.’
Being the face of the club spawns cults behind the manager. Behind this obsession is ‘what might be nowadays termed the ‘Great Person Theory’’, Variant of the abandoned Great Man Theory of History. Turns out the figure for the manager’s influence ‘on the fitness of a football club’ (15%) is approximately close to that of the average american company CEO’s profit contribution. (14.5%)
p267
After the morbid studies of CEO deaths’ effects incurred by among a thousand Danish companies on their successive performance, the conclusion that the manager is more than just a stuffed teddy bear is reached.
FURTHER IDEAS
p306
The last chapter discusses the predictions of the authors, with one being the growing competition at the highest level of the game that allows for more interchangeable players, managers, and systems. They say goals are rare but they will not get any rarer. The notion that 'football is defined by chance and by rarity' is to remain.
p311
The impact of analytics on football may only be significant in its politics. Directing the game grows more detached from the real experience of having played the game at all and im starting to think soon enough the players will be no more than command-executing bots. They maintain that we are not losing the rollercoaster of a sport the sport is.
p316
Authors make the case for the much purer capitalistic nature of football where unlike in American baseball clubs are subject to relegation, bankruptcy and administration. This makes a perfect excuse for the club officials and directors to stay true to the game's traditions.
-----------------------------------------------------------
Enjoyed reading this! I only think The game’s complexity is for its dynamism. But the authors’ main message on the latter half of the book seem to hint at the need of solving football. But i suppose most are just fine with where it’s at, its mysteries giving just enough to keep us avid fans peering through the numbers for patterns. Trends fade and reappear again and when that happens i should already be looking forward to seeing what's next.
The best approaches--tactics for a game, or strategy over the course of a season--are subject to change.
p40
"There are two routes to success in football, we have found. One is being good. The other is being lucky. You need both to win a championship. But you only need one to win a game. The correspondent from Die Ziet was right: the history of football is a record accidents that follow Cruff’s dictum. Toeval is logisch"
Toeval (chance/coincidence) is logisch (logical/consequent), as to mean in any seemingly random events, there’s an underlying pattern. Less pretentiously: football is still highly predictable despite it being random.
p82
Authors refer the diffusion of football overtime to the today’s various car brands that are not so unique among them in both economic and manufacturing terms. The ‘power and wealth’ of a select few clubs, if anything, improves the game of the puny ones at a rate deserving of respect. Good returns diminish and although it’s not so visible of an effect that you can finally see teams other than Barca, Real or Bayern reaching finals yet, the Premier League of today (and the last 5 years) just shows. All due to the bridging of skill and management gaps among the clubs that becoming increasingly cross-regional.
p90 - 128
“The differences between nations are cosmetic, shallow. The game is the same across the world’s elite football leagues. If it was not for the shirts, you would not be able to tell them apart”
FOOTBALL COMPASS
By Luis Menotti's treatment, whereas left-wing football sustains football creativity, its right-wing counterpart is fearful football only obsessed with results. Right-managers see their players as assembly of robots with 2 fundamental build-up: 'to obey and function'. It only suggests suffering and that applies for their unlucky fans.
While the modern game is about balance, Menotti doesnt mix different forces together. A gameplay can be mainly defined by 2 modes--light and dark. Assault and defense.
‘Ganar, gustar, golear’as the general motto is defined in Argentinian football scene.
But is it that much easier to score, or to not concede? The leading team’s scoreline being kept at 1-0 (1 less than 2) is them still scoring. An ongoing kind of scoring, But it’s absent. .
There’s a bias in what is present and ignoring what absent. For offense, the goal is the best outcome. But what of defense? Not conceding. The limited praise the defensive aspects of football usually get may be understood by the sports psychologist Gilovich’s way of showing this with 2 boxes. We are to find an O in a bunch of Q’s from one box, and vice versa. The first challenge will prove much more difficult in locating an O, which is just a Q in the absence of a line stuck to it, than locating a Q from the second.
Hence scoring is a present form of dominating; not conceding, an absent one. Since nothing else indicates the fan otherwise except for when the ugliest set of events at any progression of the game gone wrong one time is reminisced.
- - -
p132
All that usually comes into making an attack ‘are easily spotted, coded and counted’. Where and how the ball is being led are easy for us to track. There’s continuity in what either ends up as a either pathetic attempt or sublime conclusion. Tackles, blocks and duels, ‘have the feel of one-offs, preventive actions’ than passes, shots, and goals are. How do you begin to spot excellent marking of Klopp’s (as the manager himself described of his style once) ‘metal football’? The dispossessed’s efforts should be just about as collective as the attacking team, except the ball is there to guide us through the latter’s decisions.
Defenders at best are respected. Goals, for their rarity, relished for entirety. One unfair consequence of this is the general unlikelihood of goalkeepers and defenders coaching ‘the world’s top clubs,’ as the authors write,
‘Simply because defence is neither well understood nor highly valued’
...'The game is schizophrenic in that its as much about not losing as it is but pretends otherwise.'
To me its almost apparent that the set of actions on the one with the ball is much higher than the nearest other without. If we suppose that this breadth of freedom is really what permits creativity, then the rather dull treatment on defence including other ideas of 'securing' something stands as no surprise. The other side is where artistry is--or at least easily seen.
From baseball statistican Bill James:
'Defence is inherently harder to measure. And this is true in any sport. In any sports, the defensive statistics are more primitive than the offensive statistics. It's not just sports. It's true in life. It would be true in warfare and true in love.'
BEYOND THE YIN AND THE YANG
The number of passes goes hand in hand with successful passes. Plotting every teams passes vs pass completion per game for all games throughout the season, the correlation should be obvious--volume has everything to do with skill. So we’ll give that one to being selfish with the ball.
Is a team then to set out on dominating the open play at the opponents’ territory, or to do same except relying on open plays? Here’s a well-it-depends:
Almost all goals are from open plays. Frequency of how these goals come about holds a different meaning from the actual odds dictated by remarkably different situations: penalties, for one, grant 65% more chances of scoring than a shot from an open play.
It’s less of trivial answer when you ask why, despite almost twice the efficiency shorter moves (characteristic to long-ball games) have over longer ones (a goal in every 9 shots vs 15), does the possession-based team prevail.
Clue: More opportunities, less efficiency--and vice versa.
Answer: Shots -- its higher volume yields better odds of scoring; and it is the longer passing sequences that ultimately provide the most output in the very shots on goal. Pit two teams of the same style--direct or possessive--expect the most productive in shots to come away victorious.
p214
Promising runs favour team chemistry (sub-system) over individual skills (elements). A season is a confluence of events that largely accounts for the unpredictable--player injuries, superstar egos, crowd behaviour, weather, 40-yard stunners, 90th minute goals, impossible saves. Motivation runs out. Form fluctuates. Overcoming these contingencies goes beyond acknowledging how great of an impact they have on the team keeping itself afloat: talent pool. Almost a different kind of investment than one-off star purchases. It is the breadth of quality players at the right manager’s disposal that isnt concentrated to only few positions but that which ticks off every one of them--Forwards, Defenders, Midfielders in between. Goalkeepers!
Through Lobanovskyi, the game is of two subsystems overcoming each other for an outcome that favors the fewest flaws and best integration. freeing an eager side from bad returns requires measures be put in place for the chain of 'coalition' where strength is no longer binding.
‘...errors multiply rather than add up’
Therefore it’s the gap between the team’s weakest positions versus its better majority that make triumph seem more grueling.
TEDDY BEARS AND THEIR PLAYERS: WHEN TO SUB ONE OFF THE PITCH???
p239
Managers tend to wait for one moment where his already under-performing player fails terribly before substituting him. Whats happening is the delay due to the disconnect of observation and the manager’s prior evaluation of his player from before the kickoff. By the time the manager calls it out, the authors say it’s usually too late--basing it on the < 58 < 73 < 79 substitution rule (made out to be universally principal by the authors) to reduce errors and alleviate late-game lethargy. This bias could be forgivable, as the players are quite the self-trained ‘experts’ themselves at fooling their managers.
p253
Football views leadership of the modern manager as a soft teddy bear, i.e impactless. It really just means a closing gap between players and managers in their influence over the club and path to celebrity status that current times allow.
p262
Evaluating their worth two pages further, managers were compared to FT Global 500 CEO’s. They write:
‘The manager is the de facto organizational leader: the man who makes the decisions that affect product, the guy who hires and fires, and who is the public face of the club.’
Being the face of the club spawns cults behind the manager. Behind this obsession is ‘what might be nowadays termed the ‘Great Person Theory’’, Variant of the abandoned Great Man Theory of History. Turns out the figure for the manager’s influence ‘on the fitness of a football club’ (15%) is approximately close to that of the average american company CEO’s profit contribution. (14.5%)
p267
After the morbid studies of CEO deaths’ effects incurred by among a thousand Danish companies on their successive performance, the conclusion that the manager is more than just a stuffed teddy bear is reached.
FURTHER IDEAS
p306
The last chapter discusses the predictions of the authors, with one being the growing competition at the highest level of the game that allows for more interchangeable players, managers, and systems. They say goals are rare but they will not get any rarer. The notion that 'football is defined by chance and by rarity' is to remain.
p311
The impact of analytics on football may only be significant in its politics. Directing the game grows more detached from the real experience of having played the game at all and im starting to think soon enough the players will be no more than command-executing bots. They maintain that we are not losing the rollercoaster of a sport the sport is.
p316
Authors make the case for the much purer capitalistic nature of football where unlike in American baseball clubs are subject to relegation, bankruptcy and administration. This makes a perfect excuse for the club officials and directors to stay true to the game's traditions.
-----------------------------------------------------------
Enjoyed reading this! I only think The game’s complexity is for its dynamism. But the authors’ main message on the latter half of the book seem to hint at the need of solving football. But i suppose most are just fine with where it’s at, its mysteries giving just enough to keep us avid fans peering through the numbers for patterns. Trends fade and reappear again and when that happens i should already be looking forward to seeing what's next.
The best approaches--tactics for a game, or strategy over the course of a season--are subject to change.
May 18, 2023
Više o nogometu u Hrvatskoj.
U ovom članku ćemo pogledati još zanimljivih i korisnih informacija o svijetu nogometa u Hrvatskoj! Za vas ljubitelje hrvatskog nogometa ovdje će biti zanimljivo čitati o nogometnim stadionima u Hrvatskoj.
hrvatske lige
Najviša liga u Hrvatskoj je Hrvatska prva nogometna liga, koja se na materinjem jeziku zove Prva hrvatska nogometna liga. Poznatija je kao Prva HNL ili 1. HNL, au vrijeme pisanja ovog teksta nosi naziv Hrvatski Telekom Prva liga iz sponzorskih razloga. Osnovan je 1992. godine kada je rasformirana Jugoslavenska prva liga, au nadležnosti je Hrvatskog nogometnog saveza. Liga je mnogo puta mijenjala format tijekom godina, s dva boda za pobjedu do početka sezone 1994.-1995. To ima smisla, naravno, jer nova liga treba stajati na nogama i odlučiti o vlastitoj strukturi. U hrvatskoj piramidi sedam je nogometnih razina, a prve dvije su glavne. Svi su povezani kroz sustav napredovanja i ispadanja.
Današnji format lige relativno je lako razumjeti. Postoji deset momčadi koje igraju jedna protiv druge jednom kod kuće i jednom u gostima u dva nogometna kola u ukupno 36 utakmica svaka. Na kraju sezone momčad s najviše bodova pobjeđuje, dok momčad s najmanje bodova gubi. Devetoplasirana momčad ulazi u doigravanje protiv drugoplasirane momčadi Druge hrvatske nogometne lige, odnosno HNL-a. Pobjednici lige ulaze u Ligu prvaka (ovdje) u fazi drugog pretkola, a drugoplasirani idu u Europsku ligu u trećem pretkolu. Trećeplasirana ekipa ulazi u isto natjecanje u drugom pretkolu, a četvrtoplasirana u 1. pretkolu.
Reprezentacija Hrvatske
Neposredno prije raspada Sovjetske Savezne Republike Jugoslavije početkom 1990-ih formirana je hrvatska momčad kakvu danas poznajemo. Iako tek trebaju osvojiti veliki međunarodni turnir, osvojili su mnoge pohvale tijekom godina. 1994. i 1998. proglašeni su FIFA-inim "najboljim igračem godine"; nagrada koja se dodjeljuje momčadi koja je najviše napredovala na FIFA-inoj ljestvici tijekom kalendarske godine. Kad je Hrvatska ponovno primljena u FIFA-u, bila je rangirana kao 125. najbolja zemlja na svijetu. Hrvatski uspjeh i kasnije treće mjesto na Svjetskom prvenstvu 1998. doveli su do trećeg mjesta na ljestvici FIFA-e, što ih je učinilo najnestabilnijom momčadi u povijesti. To je akumulirano kada su završili na drugom mjestu u Francuskoj na Svjetskom prvenstvu 2018.
Dio uspjeha Hrvatske tijekom godina temeljio se na domaćoj formi. Između 1992. i 2008. Blazersi, kako ih zovu, odigrali su 36 utakmica kod kuće i ostali neporaženi. Te su utakmice dijelili zagrebački stadion Maksimir i splitski stadion Poljud, a povremene utakmice igrane su na manjim terenima drugdje u zemlji. Među pobjedama koje je Hrvatska upisala bila je pobjeda nad Engleskom od 2-0; momčadi koja je na kraju prekinula taj nevjerojatan niz bez poraza kada su 2008. pobijedili Hrvatsku 4-1.
Povijest nogometa u Hrvatskoj
Olimpijada Jugoslavija protiv Švedske
Povijest kaže da se nogomet u Hrvatskoj prvi put zaigrao 1873. godine kada su emigranti iz Engleske radili na industrijskim projektima u gradovima kao što su Rijeka i Županja i sa sobom donijeli nogomet. Lokalni timovi osnovani su 1907. godine i tada je uveden i prijevod Pravila igre.
Iako su brojni neslužbeni hrvatski timovi sudjelovali u utakmicama tijekom godina, Hrvatska je službeno bila dio prvo Kraljevine Jugoslavije, a potom Socijalističke Federativne Republike Jugoslavije. Hrvatski igrači predstavljali su svoju zemlju u turnirskom nogometu i na Ljetnim olimpijskim igrama 1956. i na Svjetskom prvenstvu i Europskom prvenstvu do neovisnosti 1991. Posljednja jugoslavenska momčad koja je imala hrvatske igrače suočila se s Farskim otocima samo nekoliko dana prije referenduma o neovisnosti.
U ovom članku ćemo pogledati još zanimljivih i korisnih informacija o svijetu nogometa u Hrvatskoj! Za vas ljubitelje hrvatskog nogometa ovdje će biti zanimljivo čitati o nogometnim stadionima u Hrvatskoj.
hrvatske lige
Najviša liga u Hrvatskoj je Hrvatska prva nogometna liga, koja se na materinjem jeziku zove Prva hrvatska nogometna liga. Poznatija je kao Prva HNL ili 1. HNL, au vrijeme pisanja ovog teksta nosi naziv Hrvatski Telekom Prva liga iz sponzorskih razloga. Osnovan je 1992. godine kada je rasformirana Jugoslavenska prva liga, au nadležnosti je Hrvatskog nogometnog saveza. Liga je mnogo puta mijenjala format tijekom godina, s dva boda za pobjedu do početka sezone 1994.-1995. To ima smisla, naravno, jer nova liga treba stajati na nogama i odlučiti o vlastitoj strukturi. U hrvatskoj piramidi sedam je nogometnih razina, a prve dvije su glavne. Svi su povezani kroz sustav napredovanja i ispadanja.
Današnji format lige relativno je lako razumjeti. Postoji deset momčadi koje igraju jedna protiv druge jednom kod kuće i jednom u gostima u dva nogometna kola u ukupno 36 utakmica svaka. Na kraju sezone momčad s najviše bodova pobjeđuje, dok momčad s najmanje bodova gubi. Devetoplasirana momčad ulazi u doigravanje protiv drugoplasirane momčadi Druge hrvatske nogometne lige, odnosno HNL-a. Pobjednici lige ulaze u Ligu prvaka (ovdje) u fazi drugog pretkola, a drugoplasirani idu u Europsku ligu u trećem pretkolu. Trećeplasirana ekipa ulazi u isto natjecanje u drugom pretkolu, a četvrtoplasirana u 1. pretkolu.
Reprezentacija Hrvatske
Neposredno prije raspada Sovjetske Savezne Republike Jugoslavije početkom 1990-ih formirana je hrvatska momčad kakvu danas poznajemo. Iako tek trebaju osvojiti veliki međunarodni turnir, osvojili su mnoge pohvale tijekom godina. 1994. i 1998. proglašeni su FIFA-inim "najboljim igračem godine"; nagrada koja se dodjeljuje momčadi koja je najviše napredovala na FIFA-inoj ljestvici tijekom kalendarske godine. Kad je Hrvatska ponovno primljena u FIFA-u, bila je rangirana kao 125. najbolja zemlja na svijetu. Hrvatski uspjeh i kasnije treće mjesto na Svjetskom prvenstvu 1998. doveli su do trećeg mjesta na ljestvici FIFA-e, što ih je učinilo najnestabilnijom momčadi u povijesti. To je akumulirano kada su završili na drugom mjestu u Francuskoj na Svjetskom prvenstvu 2018.
Dio uspjeha Hrvatske tijekom godina temeljio se na domaćoj formi. Između 1992. i 2008. Blazersi, kako ih zovu, odigrali su 36 utakmica kod kuće i ostali neporaženi. Te su utakmice dijelili zagrebački stadion Maksimir i splitski stadion Poljud, a povremene utakmice igrane su na manjim terenima drugdje u zemlji. Među pobjedama koje je Hrvatska upisala bila je pobjeda nad Engleskom od 2-0; momčadi koja je na kraju prekinula taj nevjerojatan niz bez poraza kada su 2008. pobijedili Hrvatsku 4-1.
Povijest nogometa u Hrvatskoj
Olimpijada Jugoslavija protiv Švedske
Povijest kaže da se nogomet u Hrvatskoj prvi put zaigrao 1873. godine kada su emigranti iz Engleske radili na industrijskim projektima u gradovima kao što su Rijeka i Županja i sa sobom donijeli nogomet. Lokalni timovi osnovani su 1907. godine i tada je uveden i prijevod Pravila igre.
Iako su brojni neslužbeni hrvatski timovi sudjelovali u utakmicama tijekom godina, Hrvatska je službeno bila dio prvo Kraljevine Jugoslavije, a potom Socijalističke Federativne Republike Jugoslavije. Hrvatski igrači predstavljali su svoju zemlju u turnirskom nogometu i na Ljetnim olimpijskim igrama 1956. i na Svjetskom prvenstvu i Europskom prvenstvu do neovisnosti 1991. Posljednja jugoslavenska momčad koja je imala hrvatske igrače suočila se s Farskim otocima samo nekoliko dana prije referenduma o neovisnosti.
This entire review has been hidden because of spoilers.
November 3, 2020
At its core, The Numbers Game is about the importance of sports analytics. Data is not everything, but trends cannot be offhandedly ignored either. Unlike baseball, basketball and US football, analytics is relatively a new phenomenon in football as the clubs continue to rely mostly on old school methods (Moneyball vs Trouble with the Curve, if you catch my drift). Data analytics can sometimes lead you to a conclusion remarkably different from what conventional wisdom suggests. For example, note these impressions hardly supported by data: corners are good, richer clubs have polarized the game, top four leagues are very different from each other, higher possession means higher the chance of winning, etc. Authors used a lot of interesting data charts to put their point across. One claim I particularly liked is that randomness play more important a role in the outcome of a match than we realize (perhaps more than skill) – a misplaced pass, a lucky player just happened to be there etc.
However, on balance, there are multiple wisdom bites presented as myth-busting facts that any semi-serious football viewer would already know. For example: a team is only as strong as its weakest link; or marquee signings cannot guarantee a win. So the book title might be just a little misleading.
In the end, authors make some very interesting forecasts about football, some of them might already be happening. For example, football has found its equilibrium in terms of average numbers of goals in a match; difference between salary and transfer fees of strikers and defenders will shrink; managers will start relying more on data than their experience as former players once the number flow will increase, which means some of their importance will be replaced by data analysts.
BUT, the good news for viewers is that the strength of randomness and chance mean that the game itself will not change fundamentally, only how it is managed.
An enjoyable read overall.
However, on balance, there are multiple wisdom bites presented as myth-busting facts that any semi-serious football viewer would already know. For example: a team is only as strong as its weakest link; or marquee signings cannot guarantee a win. So the book title might be just a little misleading.
In the end, authors make some very interesting forecasts about football, some of them might already be happening. For example, football has found its equilibrium in terms of average numbers of goals in a match; difference between salary and transfer fees of strikers and defenders will shrink; managers will start relying more on data than their experience as former players once the number flow will increase, which means some of their importance will be replaced by data analysts.
BUT, the good news for viewers is that the strength of randomness and chance mean that the game itself will not change fundamentally, only how it is managed.
An enjoyable read overall.
January 22, 2023
A good book but a bit dated by now.
p. 17: "teams scored with roughly one of every nine shots they took."
p. 20-1: "For James, the point was to take the numbers and find out what truth they contained, what patterns emerged, what information could be extracted that might change the way we think about the game.
"Repp's quest to use the numbers to inform strategy fell short because he was an absolutist, determined to use his data to prove his beliefs."
p. 22: "Take the 'fact' that teams are most vulnerable just after they have scored. It's a statement found in soccer all over the world, and one born of the tricks played by our minds."
p. 23: "It is immediately after they have scored that teams are least likely to concede."
p. 24: "The correlation [between goals and corners] is essentially zero."
p. 26: "Corners are next to worthless, given the risk of being caught in the counterattack, with your central defenders marooned in the opposition's box, their value in terms of net goal difference is close to zero."
p. 38: "Soccer isn't figure skating. There are no points for style.
"Beauty can be a by-product of successful teams, but just as is is not sufficient for winning games, neither is it necessary."
p. 40: 50/50: "Half the goals you see, half the results you experience, are down not to skill and ability but to random chance and luck."
p. 130: 0>1: "Goals that don't happen are move valuable than those that do."
p. 154: Johan Cruyff: "Without the ball, you can't win. If we have the ball, they can't score!"
p. 188: "Imagine though if David's stones missed their mark; his funeral would have been sparsely attended and his obituary intensely critical."
p. 230: Zonal Marking
p. 233: The Ball is Round: A Global History of Soccer: authoritative history
p. 271: Arrigo Saachi: "I never realized that in order to become a jockey you to have been a horse first."
p. 313: onfooty.com
p. 313: 5addedminutes.com
p. 322: soccerdata.com
p. 17: "teams scored with roughly one of every nine shots they took."
p. 20-1: "For James, the point was to take the numbers and find out what truth they contained, what patterns emerged, what information could be extracted that might change the way we think about the game.
"Repp's quest to use the numbers to inform strategy fell short because he was an absolutist, determined to use his data to prove his beliefs."
p. 22: "Take the 'fact' that teams are most vulnerable just after they have scored. It's a statement found in soccer all over the world, and one born of the tricks played by our minds."
p. 23: "It is immediately after they have scored that teams are least likely to concede."
p. 24: "The correlation [between goals and corners] is essentially zero."
p. 26: "Corners are next to worthless, given the risk of being caught in the counterattack, with your central defenders marooned in the opposition's box, their value in terms of net goal difference is close to zero."
p. 38: "Soccer isn't figure skating. There are no points for style.
"Beauty can be a by-product of successful teams, but just as is is not sufficient for winning games, neither is it necessary."
p. 40: 50/50: "Half the goals you see, half the results you experience, are down not to skill and ability but to random chance and luck."
p. 130: 0>1: "Goals that don't happen are move valuable than those that do."
p. 154: Johan Cruyff: "Without the ball, you can't win. If we have the ball, they can't score!"
p. 188: "Imagine though if David's stones missed their mark; his funeral would have been sparsely attended and his obituary intensely critical."
p. 230: Zonal Marking
p. 233: The Ball is Round: A Global History of Soccer: authoritative history
p. 271: Arrigo Saachi: "I never realized that in order to become a jockey you to have been a horse first."
p. 313: onfooty.com
p. 313: 5addedminutes.com
p. 322: soccerdata.com
July 1, 2018
I first encountered 'sabermetrics' in 1987 when I bought a Bill James Baseball Abstract from the long-lamented Sportspages book shop in Charing Cross Road. I quickly followed that purchase up with the Historical Abstract and then the 1988 Abstract. Since then I have been interested in 'sports analytics' as applied to other sports.
This book attempts to outline some discoveries 'soccermetrics' or whatever one wants to to call it have made about football. Unlike baseball, football is a game of near-constant motion and minimal statistics, so trying to translate the sabermetric approach to football is a bit of a Fool's Errand. One is basically reduced to taking the weakest element of sabermetrics -- the measurement of pitching and fielding in a team context -- and applying it to the entirety of the game. The Numbers Game doesn't really go even that far.
The basic elements it covers are:
1) What counts most in winning a football match, skill or luck?
2) How valuable are goals?
3) Is it better to have a great attack or a great defence?
4) Where do you want the ball before it goes into the back of the net?
5) How important are coaches?
6) What is the future of 'football analytics'?
My breakdown doesn't exactly mirror the chapters, but it does give a broad idea of the themes handled here. The answers are rarely surprising, except for that to (4), where the pioneering work of Charles Reep is not completely dismissed. But its value is in very specific circumstances.
It's not a difficult read, but unlike Bill James in 1987 it didn't completely change my appreciation of football matches. (The bit about corners probably had the biggest impact in that regard.) It seems all a bit too basic still, even compared to Bill James relatively unsophisticated research given the data baseball sabermetricians can use today, but despite that remains recommended for the thinking football fan.
This book attempts to outline some discoveries 'soccermetrics' or whatever one wants to to call it have made about football. Unlike baseball, football is a game of near-constant motion and minimal statistics, so trying to translate the sabermetric approach to football is a bit of a Fool's Errand. One is basically reduced to taking the weakest element of sabermetrics -- the measurement of pitching and fielding in a team context -- and applying it to the entirety of the game. The Numbers Game doesn't really go even that far.
The basic elements it covers are:
1) What counts most in winning a football match, skill or luck?
2) How valuable are goals?
3) Is it better to have a great attack or a great defence?
4) Where do you want the ball before it goes into the back of the net?
5) How important are coaches?
6) What is the future of 'football analytics'?
My breakdown doesn't exactly mirror the chapters, but it does give a broad idea of the themes handled here. The answers are rarely surprising, except for that to (4), where the pioneering work of Charles Reep is not completely dismissed. But its value is in very specific circumstances.
It's not a difficult read, but unlike Bill James in 1987 it didn't completely change my appreciation of football matches. (The bit about corners probably had the biggest impact in that regard.) It seems all a bit too basic still, even compared to Bill James relatively unsophisticated research given the data baseball sabermetricians can use today, but despite that remains recommended for the thinking football fan.
December 6, 2022
This book is packed full of statistics, reviews of studies and charts, it is enjoyable and illuminating. At times though it felt like sitting through a particularly dense statistics lecture but, for me, it was worth the effort as I enjoyed reading the case being made by the author through the statistics.
Some interesting points for me, a lifelong football fan, that were made in this book (and seemingly backed up by all the evidence that anyone would need)
Football is much more a game of chance than is usually acknowledged and certainly more than other sports, such as basketball, cricket and American football - largely on the basis that the scoring event in football is so comparatively rare and difficult. A stroke of luck can change a game completely and finally.
Playing at home is a significant advantage. Stopping goals gets you more benefit than scoring a lot of goals if you had to choose between the two. It's not necessarily the team with the best player that wins but the team with the least weak players - being able to hide your weaknesses on the pitch as a manager will win you more games.
Substituting in the 58th minute of games gives you the best chance of improving your fortunes in a game (since reading this I've noticed quite a few substitutions happen in minutes 58, 59, 60)
In a game that is increasingly reliant on statistics and analysis this was an interesting and enlightening read
Some interesting points for me, a lifelong football fan, that were made in this book (and seemingly backed up by all the evidence that anyone would need)
Football is much more a game of chance than is usually acknowledged and certainly more than other sports, such as basketball, cricket and American football - largely on the basis that the scoring event in football is so comparatively rare and difficult. A stroke of luck can change a game completely and finally.
Playing at home is a significant advantage. Stopping goals gets you more benefit than scoring a lot of goals if you had to choose between the two. It's not necessarily the team with the best player that wins but the team with the least weak players - being able to hide your weaknesses on the pitch as a manager will win you more games.
Substituting in the 58th minute of games gives you the best chance of improving your fortunes in a game (since reading this I've noticed quite a few substitutions happen in minutes 58, 59, 60)
In a game that is increasingly reliant on statistics and analysis this was an interesting and enlightening read
May 17, 2020
Fantastic illustration of the power of analytical thinking applied to a normally reason-free, emotion-fest of a domain of life. Coming from a background in epidemiology and clinical trials - I always appreciate a critical look at assumptions and commonly-held beliefs and this book doesn't disappoint. Many football clichés are, if not all debunked, then at least put in context. Taking one example, how data can be put together to demonstrate the vital and literally under-valued role of defence is done magnificently. In particular, I think the book does a fantastic job balancing technical detail with readability. The authors not the techniques being used (mostly regression) and pepper a few details in the text that will spark understanding in the more statistically minded reader - but never to the level that I feel might put off people without such a background.
All in all a fantastic, data-driven look at a topic about which much is said but little understood. I felt this didn't quite deserve the full five stars, as occasionally the book over-laboured its point (some discussion was just a bit lengthy), while the subject matter - even as a moderate football fan - sometimes failed to excite me even as I loved the approach and the analysis propounded by the authors. Definitely worth reading for anyone who's enjoyed books by such luminaries as Ben Goldacre or Nate Silver.
All in all a fantastic, data-driven look at a topic about which much is said but little understood. I felt this didn't quite deserve the full five stars, as occasionally the book over-laboured its point (some discussion was just a bit lengthy), while the subject matter - even as a moderate football fan - sometimes failed to excite me even as I loved the approach and the analysis propounded by the authors. Definitely worth reading for anyone who's enjoyed books by such luminaries as Ben Goldacre or Nate Silver.
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